DAILY MORNING CHAI

The S&P 500 futures trade 11 points, or 0.3%, below fair value and turned negative after the presidential debate last evening. The benchmark index is on pace to end the month lower after rising for five straight months. Prior to that chaotic debate, Walt Disney (DIS 123.15, -2.23, -1.8%) announced plans to lay off 28,000 employees due to the coronavirus pandemic. Disney shares are down 1.8% in pre-market action. White House Chief of Staff Meadows and House Speaker Pelosi reportedly remained optimistic on the prospects for further fiscal relief. Today's economic data will include the ADP Employment Change Report for September (Briefing.com consensus 600,000) at 8:15 a.m. ET, the third estimate for Q2 GDP (Briefing.com consensus -31.7%) at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Chicago PMI for September (Briefing.com consensus 53.0%) at 9:45 a.m. ET, and Pending Home Sales for August (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications declined 4.8% following a 6.8%...

The S&P 500 futures trade roughly in-line with fair value after the benchmark index gained 3.3% over the last two sessions. A revised stimulus plan has garnered attention, but there might be a wait-and-see mindset developing ahead of tonight's first debate between President Trump and former Vice President Biden. Regarding stimulus, House Democrats introduced a $2.2 trillion relief bill, versus prior talks of a $2.4 trillion plan. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Senate Republicans contend that $2.2 trillion is still too much to spend, but negotiations between the administration and House Democrats have restarted nonetheless, according to the Washington Post. On the data front, investors will receive the Advance August reports for Intl Trade in Goods, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30 a.m. ET, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July (Briefing.com consensus 3.9%) at 9:00 a.m. ET, and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for September...

The S&P 500 futures are rallying to start the week, trading 42 points, or 1.3%, above fair value. The positive bias follows not only a strong outing on Friday, but four straight weeks of losses, lending itself to a view that the market's correction might have run its course. Notwithstanding this upbeat view, the consensus among market participants remains that there'll still be volatility surrounding the election and other unresolved uncertainties, such as more fiscal relief, the coronavirus, and China. House Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) believes another stimulus package is possible, while other lawmakers are more pessimistic. Equities in Asia and Europe, meanwhile, are benefiting from a bargain-hunting mindset, with the news flow being mostly mixed. One that has impacted U.S. markets is news that there have been some signs of progress entering the final stage of Brexit talks this week. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 94.19 amid strength in the British pound (+1.3% to 1.29...

The S&P 500 futures are trading 14 points, or 0.4%, below fair value, suggesting the market is on track for its fourth straight weekly decline. The S&P 500 enters the session down 2.2% this week amid a host of uncertainties and downwards momentum. Some of those uncertainties pertain to the political sphere, specifically regarding the dimming hopes for another relief bill before the election and the likelihood that the election results are delayed. According to a recent Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs believes markets are overstating the risk from a delayed election result. There aren't any new macro factors this morning, although month-end and quarter-end rebalancing could contribute to the recent volatility in the market. Separately, today's economic data will be limited to Durable Goods Orders for August (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%), which will be available at 8:30 a.m. ET. U.S. Treasuries continue to sit relatively unchanged. The 2-yr yield is flat at 0.13%, and ...

The S&P 500 futures are holding steady following yesterday's sharp decline, trading four points, or 0.1%, below fair value. Futures have traded in a tight-ranged session. Economic data will be of interest today, as growth concerns have resurfaced amid a lack of a fiscal stimulus deal and reports of rising coronavirus cases in some parts of the U.S. and Europe. The weekly Initial Claims report (Briefing.com consensus 825,000) will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by New Home Sales for August (Briefing.com consensus 875,000) at 10:00 a.m. ET. Apple (AAPL 106.17, -0.95, -0.9%) has had a rough month, down 22.4% from its record high, and it's down another 1% in pre-market action. The latest headwind for the company is uncertainty surrounding its App Store rules, with several other high-profile companies reportedly joining the fight against Apple's practices. Elsewhere, Treasury yields remain stuck at historically low levels and have been at these levels for nearly si...

The S&P 500 futures trade six points, or 0.2%, above fair value amid some encouraging developments on the domestic front, helping the market maintain yesterday's advance. Specifically, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 147.99, +3.78, +2.6%) initiated a Phase 3 clinical trial of its single-shot COVID-19 vaccine candidate, Nike (NKE 131.70, +14.83, +12.7%) blew past quarterly expectations and raised its full-year revenue guidance, and the House passed a government funding bill through Dec. 11 that the Senate is expected to pass this week. The news could contribute to a relative outperformance of value/cyclical stocks today, many of which are sporting gains in pre-market action. The influential mega-caps are currently trading little changed, keeping equity index futures in check. On the data front, investors will receive the FHFA Housing Price Index for September at 9:00 a.m. ET. Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 6.8% following a 2.5% decline in the prior w...