DAILY MORNING CHAI BREIFING

Stocks Down Thursday Morning; 1.43 

Million More File for Unemployment

Thursday, July 30, 2020 8:42 AM | Neal Farmer


 First Look

Futures are lower Thursday morning. An initial report on second-quarter GDP showed the economy contracted by an annualized rate of 32.9% in the second quarter. Initial jobless claims 1.43 million last week, slightly higher than last week, but a touch lower than the 1.45 million estimate. Continuing claims were 1.7 million, compared to 1.62 million expected. 

The S&P 500 futures trade 25 points, or 0.8%, below fair value to retrace a bulk of yesterday's advance ahead of some key economic data. 
Investors will receive the advance estimate for Q2 GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus estimates projecting a steep 35.0% contraction in the economy due to the widespread COVID-19 shutdowns. In addition, the weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 1.400 million) and Continuing Claims report will be released alongside the GDP report.

Shares of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) - worth nearly $5T in combined market capitalization - added to gains yesterday even as their chief executives defended themselves in Congress against antitrust allegations. The real test will come today, when the Big Tech companies report Q2 results after the market close. On watch will be figures and trends in e-commerce, streaming, advertising, search, app services, social media and cloud computing. Will investors start rethinking the prices that they're paying for the stocks or will their market position during the coronavirus pandemic justify their valuations?
Rep. David Cicilline (D., R.I.), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee's antitrust subcommittee, kicked off the hearing by declaring: "Our founders would not bow before a king. Nor should we bow before the emperors of the online economy." That set the tone of five hours of grilling the Big Tech CEOs over their business practices. On the competition front, the biggest questions centered around Amazon's leveraging of seller data to introduce competing products, as well as the revelation of Mark Zuckerberg's emails about the concept of buying startups in order to "neutralize a competitor."

Both sides of the Atlantic
Today is not only the busiest day for earnings in the U.S. European firms worth more than $2T, as well as 60 companies in the Stoxx 600 Index, reported Q2 results overnight. Highlights: AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) shares rose 3% premarket on strong drug sales, while Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) shares inched down after narrowly escaping a loss despite a $17B write down and one of the oil industry's most brutal quarters. Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) simplified its investment bank structure, AB InBev (NYSE:BUD) booked a $2.5B write down and Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) is keeping production rates down until 2022. Over in Asia, Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) announced its Q2 operating profit jumped 23% and forecast demand for mobile devices to recover gradually in next half of the year.
World's biggest smartphone vendor
Huawei has overtaken Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) to become the No. 1 smartphone player in the world, an ambition it has had for several years, after taking second place from Apple (AAPL) back in 2018. The Chinese vendor shipped 55.8M devices in the second quarter, down 5% Y/Y, according to research firm Canalys, while Samsung shipped 53.7M smartphones, a 30% plunge versus the prior year. However, analysts are questioning whether Huawei's position is sustainable given the fact that over 70% of Huawei's sales in the second quarter came from China while its overseas markets took a hit.
By the end of the first half of this year, China had bought about 23% of the total purchase target of more than $170B for goods in 2020, according to Bloomberg, which based its calculations on Chinese Customs Administration data. While trade has increased over the past eight weeks, with Chinese companies booking more than $2.5B in U.S. soy purchases, imports really have to speed up in the second half of 2020 to hit trade deal goals. China may still not violate the deal if it misses the target due to the coronavirus (the trade pact grants flexibility in the event of "a natural disaster or other unforeseeable event").

Separately, some negative factors today include 1% losses in the mega-cap stocks ahead of their earnings reports after the close, reports that U.S. lawmakers are still deadlocked on the next coronavirus relief bill, and reports of an uptick in coronavirus cases in China and Japan.
What Happened To Kodak?

Eastman Kodak (KODK) shares closed up over 318% on Wednesday and saw trading volume of roughly 161,000,000 compared to Tuesday’s volume of 272,359,000 and Monday’s of 1,645,700. Before this week, Friday’s daily volume was just 74,900. The company was favored short prior to the recent rally, with nearly 6% of shares trading being sold short, about five times the average short interest ratio compared to stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. So what happened?

Tuesday, Kodak was granted a $765 million loan from the U.S. government to develop generic drug ingredients, sending shares soaring 203% to close out the session. The Wall Street Journal reported, “The onetime leader in photography sales is gearing up to produce ingredients for generic drugs, including the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine that President Trump has touted in the treatment of coronavirus.” Eastman Kodak provides hardware, software, and services in graphic arts, commercial print, publishing, electronic displays, entertainment and commercial films, as well as consumer products worldwide.

Because of this week’s rally so far, the stock is up nearly 614% YTD and 1,388% MTD. And more significantly, short-sellers have lost as much as $50 million in just a matter of this week. Kodak currently has no analysts covering its company.
The pre-
Wednesday's Key Earnings
Boeing (NYSE:BA) -2.8% posting wider loss, cutting production rates.
General Electric (NYSE:GE) -4.4% hit by decline in jet engine business.
General Motors (NYSE:GM) -1.7% reporting mixed results.
PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) +4.1% AH following consensus-beating guidance.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) +13.6% AH on FQ3 beats, Huawei settlement.
Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) +7% sailing past estimates.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China -0.2%. India -0.9%.
In Europe, at midday, London -2%. Paris -1.8%. Frankfurt -3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.9%. S&P -1%. Nasdaq -1.1%. Crude -1.6% to $40.63. Gold +0.8% to $1969.20. Bitcoin -2.9% to $10934.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 0.56%
Today's Economic Calendar
Market declines in the mega-caps have muted the earnings-related gains in Procter & Gamble (PG 130.75, +2.50, +2.0%), Qualcomm (QCOM 104.50, +11.47, +12.3%), PayPal (PYPL 190.50, +5.90, +3.2%), and UPS (UPS 137.00, +13.32, +10.8%). 
Lingering growth concerns are being manifested in the advance in longer-dated Treasuries and decline in oil prices. The 2-yr yield is flat at 0.13%, while the 10-yr yield is down three basis points to 0.55%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 93.52. WTI crude is down 2.1%, or $0.86, to $40.41/bbl.
In U.S. Corporate news:
  • Procter & Gamble (PG 130.75, +2.50): +2.0% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and guiding FY21 EPS above consensus. 
  • Qualcomm (QCOM 104.50, +11.47): +12.3% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and reaching license agreement with Huawei. 
  • PayPal (PYPL 190.50, +5.90): +3.2% after beating top and bottom-line estimates, guiding Q3 revenue above consensus, and guiding FY20 EPS and revenue above consensus.
  • UPS (UPS 137.00, +13.32) +10.8% after beating top and bottom-line estimates. 
  • Qorvo (QRVO 123.23, +7.95): +6.9% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and issuing upside quarterly guidance. 
Reviewing overnight developments:
  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.7%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.2%, India's Sensex: -0.9%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.2%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.8%.
    • In economic data:
      • Japan's June Retail Sales -1.2% yr/yr (expected -6.5%; last -12.5%)
      • South Korea's August Manufacturing BSI Index 60 (last 51)
      • Hong Kong's June Retail Sales -24.8% yr/yr (last -32.8%)
      • Australia's June Building Approvals -4.9% m/m (expected 1.5%; last -16.4%)
      • New Zealand's June Building Consents 0.5% m/m (expected 20.4%; last 41.7%) and July ANZ Business Confidence -31.8 (last -34.4)
    • In news:
      • Samsung reported solid results for Q2 but guided for flat memory shipments in Q3. Australia's debt agency chief said that AUD240 bln worth of debt will be issued this fiscal year.
      • The Bank of Korea will extend its special lending facility until November.
  • Major European indices trade in negative territory. STOXX Europe 600: -1.7%, Germany's DAX: -2.9%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.8%, France's CAC 40: -1.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -2.8%, Spain's IBEX 35: -2.6%.
    • In economic data:
      • Eurozone's June Unemployment rate 7.8% (expected 7.7%; last 7.7%). July Business and Consumer Survey 82.3 (expected 81.0; last 75.8)
      • Germany's Q2 GDP -10.1% qtr/qtr (expected -9.0%; last -2.0%); -11.7% yr/yr (expected -10.9%; last -1.8%). July Unemployment Change -18,000 (expected 43,000; last 68,000) and July Unemployment Rate 6.4% (expected 6.5%; last 6.4%)
      • France's June PPI 0.7% m/m (last -0.1%)
      • Italy's June Unemployment Rate 8.8% (expected 8.6%; last 8.3%)
      • Spain's July CPI -0.9% m/m (last 0.5%); -0.6% yr/yr (expected -0.3%; last -0.3%). July Business Confidence -11.5 (last -23.1)
      • Swiss July KOF Leading Indicators 85.7 (expected 75.0; last 60.6)
    • In news:
      • Investor sentiment has been dampened by Germany reporting that its GDP was decimated in Q2 while Spain's CPI has continued deflating on a yr/yr basis.
      • The Italian government extended its emergency decree until October 15.
      • The European Central Bank's latest economic bulletin noted that economic activity remains well below levels from late 2019.

    • A bulk of today's gains came prior to the start of the antitrust hearing and the Fed's unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged. The market pushed higher as soon as Fed Chair Powell began his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, liking his comment that the Fed is "not even thinking about thinking about thinking about raising rates." (Yes, Mr. Powell said "thinking" three times). 
      Note, the CEOs of Apple (AAPL 380.16, +7.15, +1.9%), Amazon (AMZN 3033.53, +33.20, +1.1%), Alphabet (GOOG 1522.02, +21.68, +1.5%), and Facebook (FB 233.29, +3.17, +1.4%) were still testifying before the House Judiciary Committee when the market closed for trading. While many lawmakers expressed serious concern about their business practices, shareholders kept their composure. 
      Earnings remained mixed, but notable standouts included Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 76.09, +8.48, +12.5%), Shopify (SHOP 1053.59, +68.59, +7.0%), and Starbucks (SBUX 77.42, +2.78, +3.7%). Dow component Visa (V 198.58, +1.84, +0.9%) overcame a negative start following its positive report.  
      On the downside, Boeing (BA 166.00, -4.84, -2.8%) and General Electric (GE 6.59, -0.30, -4.4%) closed sharply lower following their earnings reports. Boeing also said it expects to cut 19,000 jobs and estimated it will take around three years for travel to return to 2019 levels, which weighed on the airline stocks. 
      U.S. Treasuries edged higher after the release of the July FOMC statement, but the moves were minuscule. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.13%, and the 10-yr yield was flat at 0.58%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell another 0.4% to 93.35. WTI crude futures gained 0.6%, or $0.23, to $41.27/bbl.
      Reviewing Wednesday's economic data:
      • Pending home sales increased 16.6% in June (Briefing.com consensus +17.0%) after surging an unrevised 44.3% in May.
      • The advance international trade in goods deficit totaled $70.6 bln in June following a $75.3 bln deficit in May. Advance retail inventories declined 2.6% in June after decreasing 6.2% in May. Advance wholesale inventories declined 2.0% in June after decreasing 1.2% in May.
      • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index declined 0.8% following a 4.1% increase in the prior week.
      Looking ahead, investors will receive the advance estimate for Q2 GDP and the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report on Thursday.
      • Nasdaq Composite +17.5% YTD
      • S&P 500 +0.9% YTD
      • Dow Jones Industrial Average -7.0% YTD
      • Russell 2000 -10.1% YTD
      Overseas: 
      • Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE flat, CAC +0.6%
      • Asia: Nikkei -1.2%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai +2.1%
      Commodities: 
      • Crude Oil +0.18 @ 41.22
      • Nat Gas +0.07 @ 1.93
      • Gold +9.10 @ 1953.70
      • Silver +0.06 @ 24.35
      • Copper unch @ 2.92
      After-Hours Spotlight:
      • White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told Politico that "we’re nowhere close to a deal....it means enhanced unemployment insurance provision will expire on Friday," according to Politico
      • FDA is nearing a decision to authorize emergency use of antibody-rich blood plasma as treatment for COVID-19, according to The Wall Street Journal
      • At Home Group (HOME) sees Q2 revs above consensus.... HOME up 42.7% after hours
      • Cerner (CERN) beats by $0.02, misses on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs in-line; narrows FY20 EPS in-line, revs in-line... no after hous indication for CERN
      • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) beats by $0.23, misses on revs, comps -56.9%... CAKE down 2.3% after hours
      • Chemed (CHE) beats by $0.66, misses on revs; guides FY20 EPS above consensus... CHE up 1.1% after hours
      • Cognizant Tech (CTSH) beats by $0.13, beats on revs; guides FY20 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus... CTSH up 3.7% after hours
      • Crown Castle (CCI) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides FY20 FFO above consensus... CCI up 0.1% after hours
      • Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) beats by $0.34, beats on revs... FBHS down 0.4% after hours
      • Impinj (PI) beats by $0.02, misses on revs... PI down 9.2% after hours
      • Lam Research (LRCX) beats by $0.87, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus... LRCX up 1.2% after hours
      • MKS Instruments (MKSI) beats by $0.44, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus... MKSI up 4.1% after hours
      • O'Reilly Auto (ORLY) beats by $3.00, beats on revs... ORLY up 6.9% after hours
      • PayPal (PYPL) beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs above consensus; guides FY20 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus... PYPL up 3.5% after hours
      • Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) misses by $0.14, misses on revs... PPC down 3.3% after hours
      • Pluralsight (PS) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY20 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus... PS up 0.3% after hours
      • Qualcomm (QCOM) beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line; discloses settlement agreement with Huawei... QCOM up 12.4% after hours
      • Qorvo (QRVO) beats by $0.37, beats on revs; guides SepQ EPS above consensus, revs above consensus... QRVO up 8.4% after hours
      • Sanmina (SANM) beats by $0.52, beats on revs; provides upside Q4 guidance... SANM up 15.1% after hours
      • ServiceNow (NOW) beats by $0.21, beats on revs... NOW down 5.4% after hours
      • Teladoc (TDOC) misses by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY20 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus... TDOC down 0.6% after hours
      • United Rentals (URI) beats by $1.75, beats on revs; reintroduces FY20 revs guidance... URI up 0.4% after hours
      • Werner Enterprises (WERN) beats by $0.22, beats on revs... WERN down 0.4% after hours
      • Yum China (YUMC) beats by $0.12, misses on revs... YUMC flat after hours
      Qualcomm surging after earnings and Huawei settlement news
      The S&P 500 rallied 1.2% on Wednesday, as investors were pleased with the Fed's latest policy directive and were unconcerned by the House Judiciary Committee's antitrust hearing. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4%, and the Russell 2000 rose 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed with a 0.6% gain. 
      It was a steady and broad-based advance that lifted all 11 S&P 500 sectors into positive territory, including seven that rose at least 1.0%. The energy (+2.1%) and financials (+2.0%) sectors advanced the most with 2% gains, while the consumer staples sector lagged with a 0.2% gain. 
      A bulk of today's gains came prior to the start of the antitrust hearing and the Fed's unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged. The market pushed higher as soon as Fed Chair Powell began his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, liking his comment that the Fed is "not even thinking about thinking about thinking about raising rates." (Yes, Mr. Powell said "thinking" three times). Qualcomm receives a windfall from Huawei; is poised to capitalize on 5G roll-out

      Related Quotes
       
      12:11 PM ET 7/30/20
      SymbolLast% Chg
      QCOM
      		104.7012.54%

       
      Qualcomm (QCOM), the world's largest producer of mobile phone chips, is rallying after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results after the close last night. The upside earnings report is only part of the story, though.

      QCOM also announced that it reached a settlement agreement with Chinese telecom company Huawei. The two companies have been embroiled in a patent licensing dispute, with QCOM alleging that Huawei hasn't fully compensated the company for using its CDMA technology.

      The resolution not only removes any legal uncertainties regarding the dispute, but it also includes a $1.8 bln lump sum payment from Huawei for prior usage of QCOM technology. Additionally, QCOM signed Huawei to a new licensing deal in which Huawei will pay royalty fees starting in Q4.

      With this new agreement, QCOM now holds licensing agreements with all major handset OEMs worldwide.

      The sizable payment from Huawei is a very nice immediate benefit. However, the more important big picture view is also looking quite favorable for QCOM.

      QCOM has focused its R&D investments in 5G technology, positioning itself for the roll-out of 5G-enabled devices. Traditionally known for making chips that enable phones to connect to wireless networks, QCOM has diversified its products to include radio frequency (RF) chips that are capable of handling signals from 5G equipment.

      During the earnings conference call last night, CEO Steven Mollenkopf stated that virtually all of the company's 5G design wins are powered by its RF front-end technology. Consequently, Mollenkopf expects QCOM to become one of the largest RF vendors by 2021.

      In China, the transition to 5G is well underway. In June, 5G smartphone shipments accounted for 63% of total smartphone shipments in the country, according to the China Academy of Telecommunication Research.

      The 5G rollout in the U.S. is on the near-term horizon, although the delayed launch of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 12 is providing a speed bump. In QCOM's earnings press release, the company commented that its Q4 guidance included negative impact from the delay of a "global 5G flagship phone launch." This is widely believed to refer to the iPhone 12.

      Despite the delay, QCOM's guidance was still solid with the company forecasting EPS of $1.05-1.25 vs. the $1.09 consensus estimate and revenue of $5.5-6.3 bln compared to the $5.76 bln expectation. It's important to note that this outlook does not include any part of the $1.8 bln payment from Huawei. Furthermore, the iPhone delay will simply push some revenue into the December quarter from the September quarter.

      There is plenty of good news for investors to consider and analyze, but the main takeaway is that QCOM is in prime position to capitalize on the accelerating rollout of 5G devices.
      Note, the CEOs of Apple (AAPL 380.16, +7.15, +1.9%), Amazon (AMZN 3033.53, +33.20, +1.1%), Alphabet (GOOG 1522.02, +21.68, +1.5%), and Facebook (FB 233.29, +3.17, +1.4%) were still testifying before the House Judiciary Committee when the market closed for trading. While many lawmakers expressed serious concern about their business practices, shareholders kept their composure. 
      Earnings remained mixed, but notable standouts included Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 76.09, +8.48, +12.5%), Shopify (SHOP 1053.59, +68.59, +7.0%), and Starbucks (SBUX 77.42, +2.78, +3.7%). Dow component Visa (V 198.58, +1.84, +0.9%) overcame a negative start following its positive report.  
      On the downside, Boeing (BA 166.00, -4.84, -2.8%) and General Electric (GE 6.59, -0.30, -4.4%) closed sharply lower following their earnings reports. Boeing also said it expects to cut 19,000 jobs and estimated it will take around three years for travel to return to 2019 levels, which weighed on the airline stocks. 
      U.S. Treasuries edged higher after the release of the July FOMC statement, but the moves were minuscule. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.13%, and the 10-yr yield was flat at 0.58%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell another 0.4% to 93.35. WTI crude futures gained 0.6%, or $0.23, to $41.27/bbl.
      Reviewing Wednesday's economic data:
      • Pending home sales increased 16.6% in June (Briefing.com consensus +17.0%) after surging an unrevised 44.3% in May.
      • The advance international trade in goods deficit totaled $70.6 bln in June following a $75.3 bln deficit in May. Advance retail inventories declined 2.6% in June after decreasing 6.2% in May. Advance wholesale inventories declined 2.0% in June after decreasing 1.2% in May.
      • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index declined 0.8% following a 4.1% increase in the prior week.
      Looking ahead, investors will receive the advance estimate for Q2 GDP and the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report on Thursday.
      • Nasdaq Composite +17.5% YTD
      • S&P 500 +0.9% YTD
      • Dow Jones Industrial Average -7.0% YTD
      • Russell 2000 -10.1% YTD
      Overseas: 
      • Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE flat, CAC +0.6%
      • Asia: Nikkei -1.2%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai +2.1%
      Commodities: 
      • Crude Oil +0.18 @ 41.22
      • Nat Gas +0.07 @ 1.93
      • Gold +9.10 @ 1953.70
      • Silver +0.06 @ 24.35
      • Copper unch @ 2.92


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