Morning Briefing - Dipping lower following the latest batch of earnings

  
The S&P 500 futures trade ten points, or 0.3%, below fair value following yesterday's advance, as investors digest the latest coronavirus relief bill and a mixed slate of earnings reports. 

After yesterday's close, Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) introduced the HEALS Act, a $1 trillion coronavirus relief bill that includes money for health, testing, schools, liability protection, and small businesses; $1200 stimulus payments to Americans; and $200/week extra in unemployment insurance. Negotiations with Democrats will continue throughout the week. 

 Earnings reports haven't instilled a lot of confidence in the market, either. Dow components 3M (MMM 158.50, -4.74, -2.9%), Pfizer (PFE 38.82, +1.28, +3.4%), Raytheon Technologies (RTX 62.51, +1.42, +2.3% ), and McDonald's (MCD 196.50, -4.75, -2.4%) are trading mixed following their quarterly results. 
On the data front, investors will receive the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%) at 9:00 a.m. ET and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for July (Briefing.com consensus 95.0) at 10:00 a.m. ET. 
U.S. Treasuries trade near their flat lines, and so is the U.S. Dollar Index (93.79, +0.12, +0.1%) after declining nearly 4.0% this month. The 2-yr yield is down one basis point to 0.14%, and the 10-yr yield is up one basis point to 0.61%. WTI crude futures are down 0.5% to $41.39/bbl.
In U.S. Corporate news:


Republicans have unveiled major parts of their coronavirus relief plan with just days to go before expanded federal jobless benefits are set to expire. Highlights: The $600 weekly federal unemployment supplement would be cut to $200 a week through September, when the payment will then combine with state benefits to replace 70% of previous wages. It also includes stimulus checks, $105B to help schools reopen in the fall and more PPP loans, among other provisions. The bill is the first step toward negotiating a compromise plan with Democrats, though Nancy Pelosi called it a "pathetic" piecemeal approach. "Having said that, we are going to see if we can find some common ground," she added. "But we are not there yet."

  It's the busiest week of the second-quarter earnings season, with 171 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. Things start off slow on Monday, before 3M, Advanced Micro Devices, eBay, McDonald's, Pfizer, Starbucks, and Visa all report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Boeing, Facebook, General Electric, PayPal Holdings, Qualcomm, and Shopify release results.

Thursday is particularly busy: Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Comcast, Ford Motor, Procter & Gamble, and United Parcel Service all report. Finally, Caterpillar, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and Under Armour release earnings on Friday.

The week's economic calendar is also busy. On Monday, the Census Bureau releases the Durable Goods report for June, which is often seen as a decent proxy for business investment. Expectations are for another monthly rise after a large jump in May. Next on Tuesday, the Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for June.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee concludes a two-day meeting and announces a monetary policy decision. Officials are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference will still get plenty of attention. Investors and Fed watchers will want to hear about policymakers' latest views on the U.S. economy.

Then, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report a record 34% drop in gross domestic product for the second quarter on Thursday. And lastly on Friday, the BEA will release personal income and spending data for June.

 Tuesday earning

3M, Advanced Micro Devices , Altria Group , Amgen , eBay , McDonald's , MSCI , Mondelez International , Pfizer , Raytheon Technologies , S&P Global , Starbucks , and Visa report earnings.

The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for June. Consensus estimate is for a 95.5 reading, slightly below May's 98.1.

Wednesday 7/29

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates near zero through 2022.

Boeing , Crown Castle International , Facebook , General Electric , Norfolk Southern , PayPal Holdings , Qualcomm , Sanofi , and Shopify report quarterly results.

The National Association of Realtors releases its Pending Home Sales Index for June. The index is seen rising 5.4% to a 105 reading, after a record spike of 44.3% in May.

Thursday 7/30

Alphabet , Amazon.com , American Tower , Apple , Comcast , ConocoPhillips , Electronic Arts , Eli Lilly , Ford Motor , Gilead Sciences , Moody's , Newmont , Northrop Grumman , Procter & Gamble , and United Parcel Service hold conference calls to discuss earnings.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports gross domestic product for the second quarter. Consensus estimate is for a decline of 34%, after a 5% fall in the first quarter. The largest quarterly drop recorded was 10% for the first three months of 1958. The BEA's release will probably confirm the end of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, which began in June of 2009.

Friday 7/31

AbbVie , Caterpillar , Charter Communications , Chevron , Colgate-Palmolive , Exxon Mobil , Merck , Phillips 66 , and Under Armour report earnings.

The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for July. Economists forecast a 42 reading, above June's 36.6 but still below the expansionary level of 50, which the index hasn't surpassed since last summer.

The BEA reports personal income and spending for June. Expectations for a 3% decline in income and a 6% jump in spending. This compares with a 4.2% drop and a 8.2% gain, respectively, in May.
Spot gold fell more than 1% overnight to $1,920/oz, while silver tumbled 4.5% to $23.62/oz, as the FOMC gathers today for a meeting that may provide more direction for traders. While prices waver, most market watchers are still predicting more gains ahead for the precious metals. "The message from the Fed meeting is expected to be dovish, reiterating the need for more fiscal measures, which is likely to be supportive of gold," said Nicholas Frappell, global general manager at Sydney-based ABC Bullion. "With real interest rates deep in negative territory and the coronavirus resurgence hitting the dollar index hard, that’s good for gold."
Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine) is joining Sen. Mitt Romney (R., Utah) in opposing the nomination of controversial pick Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve's board of governors. "In her past statements, Ms. Shelton has openly called for the Federal Reserve to be less independent of the political branches, and has even questioned the need for a central bank," Collins said in a statement. The nominee has also been a longtime proponent of a return to the gold standard, which would limit the Fed's ability to influence inflation and employment. Republicans have a 53-47 vote advantage in the Senate, meaning Shelton can't afford to lose more than three Republicans if all Democrats oppose her candidacy.
Billions of euros are at stake for investors as the ECB extended a request that banks hold off on returning capital until January 2021. The central bank first asked lenders in March to not make dividend payments until October in an effort to conserve capital as lockdowns to combat the pandemic brought the economy to a standstill. While the move was painful for shareholders, the ECB indicated it was a trade-off for unprecedented regulatory relief it had granted them to weather the crisis.
Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH) has named Jim Lanzone, previous chief executive of CBS Interactive, as the new CEO of its flagship dating app Tinder. He definitely has his work cut out for him as the coronavirus pandemic redefines the online dating industry. Lanzone will join the company on Aug. 3, succeeding current Tinder CEO Elie Seidman, who is stepping down and returning to work with early-stage, venture-backed companies. Match Group controls much of the Internet dating scene, with other properties like OkCupid, Hinge and Plenty of Fish.
It's going to be a busy fall season for Apple (AAPL), according to well-known leakers iHacktu Pro and Komiya, who published the launch dates for every upcoming company product. The late 2020 updates will begin on August 19 with a new iMac, AirPods Studio, HomePod 2 and HomePod Mini, followed by an event on September 8 that will unveil the iPhone 12 line, iPad, Apple Watch Series 6 and AirTags. Another special event on October 27 will show off the Apple Silicon MacBook and MacBook Pro 13", iPad Pro and Apple TV 4K. There are also big expectations for a renewed AirPower charging mat, and smaller wireless charger AirPower Mini, as well as Apple Glass - the reported augmented reality smart glasses.
A Georgia judge hears arguments today in a case brought by Governor Brian Kemp to stop the city of Atlanta from enforcing a mask mandate that is punishable by a fine or up to six months in jail. Shares of mask makers like Alpha Pro Tech (NYSEMKT:APT), Allied Healthcare Products (NASDAQ:AHPI) and Lakeland Industries (NASDAQ:LAKE) are on watch as the emergency motion asks the judge to halt Atlanta's enforcement efforts while a lawsuit works its way through the courts. Kemp, one of the first governors to ease statewide stay-at-home orders and business closures, claims that Atlanta's measure is more restrictive than a state order which "strongly encourages face coverings" but does not require them.

What else is happening...
WarnerMedia (NYSE:T) probes Ellen DeGeneres Show over toxic work culture.
Google (GOOG, GOOGL) keeping employees at home until July 2021 - WSJ.
Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) inks manufacturing deal for COVID-19 vaccine.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) ousts its chief engineer after product delays.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) unveils new fast charging standard.
U.S. gunmaker Remington files for bankruptcy again.
Monday's Key Earnings
Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) -7.4% hit by movie theater closures.
NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) -3.7% AH as weaker auto sales weighed on Q2 beats.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China +0.7%. India +1.5%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.6%. Frankfurt -0.3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.3%. Crude -0.5% to $41.40. Gold -0.4% to $1922.90. Bitcoin -4.3% to $10795.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 0.61%
Today's Economic Calendar

UPGRADES.Tuesday 7/28
  • 3M (Mbor Realty Trust  (ABR)


    Brokerage Firm:  JP Morgan |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Neutral » Overweight |  Price Tgt:  $9 » $9.50
    Autohome  (ATHM)
    Brokerage Firm:  Credit Suisse |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Neutral » Outperform |  Price Tgt:  --
    Avery Dennison  (AVY)
    Brokerage Firm:  JP Morgan |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Underweight » Neutral |  Price Tgt:  $110 » $115
    BrightSphere Investment Group  (BSIG)
    Brokerage Firm:  Keefe Bruyette |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Mkt Perform » Outperform |  Price Tgt:  $14 » $18.50
    BT Group plc  (BTGOF)
    Brokerage Firm:  Barclays |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Underweight » Equal Weight |  Price Tgt:  --
    Cloudflare  (NET)
    Brokerage Firm:  Jefferies |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Hold » Buy |  Price Tgt:  $27 » $50
    Concho Resources  (CXO)
    Brokerage Firm:  SunTrust |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Hold » Buy |  Price Tgt:  $60 » $66
    Shopify  (SHOP)
    Brokerage Firm:  Goldman |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Neutral » Buy |  Price Tgt:  $1127
    Spire  (SR)
    Brokerage Firm:  Wells Fargo |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Equal Weight » Overweight |  Price Tgt:  $71 » $72
    Vocera  (VCRA)
    Brokerage Firm:  Craig Hallum |  Action:  Upgrade |  Ratings Change:  Hold » Buy |  Price Tgt:  $21 » $30
    DOWNGRADES
    Park Hotels & Resorts  (PK)
    Brokerage Firm:  Evercore ISI |  Action:  Downgrade |  Ratings Change:  Outperform » In-line |  Price Tgt:  --
    Redfin  (RDFN)
    Brokerage Firm:  Susquehanna |  Action:  Downgrade |  Ratings Change:  Neutral » Negative |  Price Tgt:  --
    Simpson Manufacturing  (SSD)
    Brokerage Firm:  DA Davidson |  Action:  Downgrade |  Ratings Change:  Buy » Neutral |  Price Tgt:  $98
    Solid Biosciences  (SLDB)
    Brokerage Firm:  SVB Leerink |  Action:  Downgrade |  Ratings Change:  Outperform » Mkt Perform |  Price Tgt:  --
    Tesla  (TSLA)
    Brokerage Firm:  Bernstein |  Action:  Downgrade |  Ratings Change:  Mkt Perform » Underperform |  Price Tgt:  $900
    Two Harbors Investment  (TWO)
    Brokerage Firm:  JP Morgan |  Action:  Downgrade |  Ratings Change:  Overweight » Neutral |  Price Tgt:  $5.50
    Tyler Tech  (TYL)
    Brokerage Firm:  Oppenheimer |  Action:  Downgrade |  Ratings Change:  Outperform » Perform |  Price Tgt:  --
    COVERAGE INITIATED
    Altimmune  (ALT)
    Brokerage Firm:  JMP Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Mkt Outperform |  Price Tgt:  $50
    Andersons  (ANDE)
    Brokerage Firm:  Seaport Global Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Neutral |  Price Tgt:  --
    Archer-Daniels  (ADM)
    Brokerage Firm:  Seaport Global Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $51
    B&G Foods  (BGS)
    Brokerage Firm:  Seaport Global Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Neutral |  Price Tgt:  --
    Beyond Meat  (BYND)
    Brokerage Firm:  Canaccord Genuity |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Hold |  Price Tgt:  $140
    Bristol-Myers  (BMY)
    Brokerage Firm:  Raymond James |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Outperform |  Price Tgt:  $75
    Calyxt  (CLXT)
    Brokerage Firm:  Canaccord Genuity |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $8
    CarGurus  (CARG)
    Brokerage Firm:  Piper Sandler |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Neutral |  Price Tgt:  $27
    Carvana  (CVNA)
    Brokerage Firm:  Piper Sandler |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Overweight |  Price Tgt:  $211
    Grubhub  (GRUB)
    Brokerage Firm:  Piper Sandler |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Neutral |  Price Tgt:  $75
    Innovative Industrial Properties  (IIPR)
    Brokerage Firm:  JMP Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Mkt Outperform |  Price Tgt:  $120
    Insulet  (PODD)
    Brokerage Firm:  Wells Fargo |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Overweight |  Price Tgt:  $231
    Inuvo  (INUV)
    Brokerage Firm:  Alliance Global Partners |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $2.25
    Kaleyra  (KLR)
    Brokerage Firm:  National Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $13
    Kellogg  (K)
    Brokerage Firm:  Seaport Global Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $76
    Marrone Bio Innovations  (MBII)
    Brokerage Firm:  Canaccord Genuity |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  --
    Mondelez Int'l  (MDLZ)
    Brokerage Firm:  Seaport Global Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $61
    Philips  (PHG)
    Brokerage Firm:  Societe Generale |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  --
    Rimini Street  (RMNI)
    Brokerage Firm:  The Benchmark Company |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $10
    Saia  (SAIA)
    Brokerage Firm:  BofA Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Neutral |  Price Tgt:  $135
    Simply Good Foods  (SMPL)
    Brokerage Firm:  Seaport Global Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $27
    Tyson Foods  (TSN)
    Brokerage Firm:  Seaport Global Securities |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Neutral |  Price Tgt:  --
    Unity Biotechnology  (UBX)
    Brokerage Firm:  ROTH Capital |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $35
    Vonage  (VG)
    Brokerage Firm:  Rosenblatt |  Action:  Initiated |  Ratings Change:  Neutral |  Price Tgt:  $12
    COVERAGE RESUMED
    Compass Diversified  (CODI)
    Brokerage Firm:  ROTH Capital |  Action:  Resumed |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $20
    REITERATED/PRICE TARGET CHANGED
    Alphabet  (GOOG)
    Brokerage Firm:  Deutsche Bank |  Action:  Reiterated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $1700 » $1975
    CRISPR Therapeutics  (CRSP)
    Brokerage Firm:  Needham |  Action:  Reiterated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $84 » $105
    F5 Networks  (FFIV)
    Brokerage Firm:  Needham |  Action:  Reiterated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $170 » $180
    Facebook  (FB)
    Brokerage Firm:  Deutsche Bank |  Action:  Reiterated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $220 » $275
    MKS Instruments  (MKSI)
    Brokerage Firm:  Needham |  Action:  Reiterated |  Ratings Change:  Buy |  Price Tgt:  $125 » $135
    Peloton  (PTON)
    Brokerage Firm:  KeyBanc Capital Markets |  Action:  Reiterated |  Ratings Change:  Overweight |  Price Tgt:  $70 » $74
    Trinity Industries  (TRN)
    Brokerage Firm:  Cowen |  Action:  Reiterated |  Ratings Change:  Outperform |  Price Tgt:  $24 » $21
    V.F. Corp  (VFC)
    Brokerage Firm:  Pivotal Research Group |  Action:  Reiterated |  Ratings Change:  Hold |  Price Tgt:  $55 » $60
    MM 158.50, -4.74): -2.9% after missing top and bottom-line estimates, but it did say it's seeing broad-based sales improvement to start Q3
  • Pfizer (PFE 38.82, +1.28): +3.4% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and raising its FY20 guidance. 
  • Raytheon Technologies (RTX 62.51, +1.42): +2.3% after beating top and bottom-line estimates. 
  • McDonald's (MCD 196.50, -4.75): -2.4% after missing earnings estimates. 
  • Centene (CNC 65.00, -2.27): -3.4% after missing earnings estimates and providing in-line FY20 guidance. 

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