Daily morning chai REPORT

U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday as President Donald Trump's moves to ban WeChat and TikTok intensified tensions with Beijing, while investors also braced for data likely to show a sharp slowdown in jobs growth in July.The S&P 500 futures are easing back from a recent stretch of gains, currently trading 11 points, or 0.3%, below fair value ahead of the Employment Situation Report for July at 8:30 a.m. ET. There are some negative factors being attributed to this morning's negative bias, though. U.S. Treasuries trade little changed. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 0.12%, and the 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 0.53%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.5% to 93.21. WTI crude is down 1.2%, or $0.50, to $41.44/bbl. Underlining the disconnect between U.S. economic health and a stimulus-led rally on Wall Street, the Nasdaq closed on Thursday above 11,000 for the first time and the S&P 500 finished about 1% below its record high as traders counted on Congress to agree another coronavirus relief package. But Democratic leaders and top aides to President Donald Trump have so far failed to make substantial progress, with differences partly centered around continuing an extra $600-per-week in unemployment benefits. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report later in the day could add pressure to speed up negotiations, with a Reuters survey of economists expecting the creation of 1.58 million jobs last month, a step-down from the record 4.8 million in June. Meanwhile, Trump late on Thursday unveiled sweeping bans on U.S. transactions with the Chinese owners of messaging app WeChat and video-sharing app TikTok after his administration flagged greater effort to purge "untrusted" Chinese apps from domestic digital networks. Shares of WeChat-owner Tencent Holdings Ltd (HK:0700) fell as much as 10% in Asia trade, while social media giant Facebook (O:FB) was little changed in U.S. premarket trading. Microsoft Corp (O:MSFT), which is seeking to buy TikTok's U.S. operations, was down about 0.7%. New York-listed Tencent Music Entertainment Group (N:TME), which was spun off from Tencent in 2018, fell 4.5%. At 6:49 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis <1YMcv1> were down 120 points, or 0.44%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 14.5 points, or 0.43% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 51.25 points, or 0.46%. With the second-quarter corporate earnings season largely over, about 83% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten dramatically lowered estimates, with earnings on average coming in 23.5% above expectations - the highest on record. T-Mobile US Inc (O:TMUS) was headed higher after it added more-than-expected monthly phone subscribers and said it had overtaken rival AT&T Inc (N:T) as the second-largest U.S. wireless provider. AT&T was unchanged in trading before the bell. What's the scope? It's still unknown how far President Trump's executive action will go, but U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is set to identify transactions covered by the order. Tencent has many prominent investments, including in Snap (NYSE:SNAP), Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) and Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) - via Tencent Music Entertainment (NYSE:TME). Tencent also bought a 5% stake in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) back in 2017, and CEO Elon Musk has called the company an "investor and adviser." In premarket trade, Tencent ADRs are unchanged (shares tumbled 5% in Hong Kong), while Tencent Music is down 4.1%. Stimulus impasse A three-hour meeting Thursday evening between White House officials and Democratic leaders yielded little progress on a virus relief package, bringing the talks to the brink of collapse. It's unclear whether the two sides will resume negotiations today, meaning President Trump would likely rely on executive actions. "The one thing the President can do is extend the moratorium and that would be a good thing if there's money to go with it and that's what we keep telling them," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared, adding that he "can't move that much money" without congressional approval. Jobs report ahead While the stock market is coming off of five consecutive days of gains, U.S. futures fell 0.5% overnight. Prior to the dip, this week's gains in the S&P 500 pushed the benchmark just 1.3% below its Feb. 19 record, while the Nasdaq closed above 11,000 for the first time on Thursday. Jobs is another area of focus for investors this morning. Estimates for the non-farm payrolls report are all over the place, with consensus coming in at 1.6M jobs created in July, after a 4.8M increase in June. The U.S. unemployment rate is forecast at 10.5%, from 11.1% last month. Tariffs "Canada was taking advantage of us, as usual," President Trump announced after imposing tariffs of 10% of Canadian aluminum. "Very unfair to our jobs and our great aluminum workers." The new tariffs only apply to a certain category of aluminum non-alloyed unwrought aluminum, which refers to unfinished ingots and slabs of aluminum that are then heated and rolled into different products like sheet or shapes of aluminum. The friction comes a little over a month after the implementation of the new USMCA trade agreement and Ottawa said it would retaliate with proportional levies. More executive orders "We will bring our pharmaceutical and medical supply chains home - we're going to bring them home where they belong - and we will end reliance on China," President Trump said after unveiling an action on domestic drug production. "We'll be making our product here - safely, beautifully and inexpensively. We're reasserting American economic independence." The executive order will help increase production of essential medicines, medical equipment and protective gear in the U.S., according to trade adviser Peter Navarro. "If we've learned anything from the China virus pandemic... we are dangerously overdependent on foreign nations." Virtual fans next? 67 NFL players have opted out of the 2020 season due to the coronavirus pandemic, with athletes only allowed to withdraw if "a close family member gets seriously sick with COVID or if they themselves are newly diagnosed with a high-risk condition." Team hit the hardest? The New England Patriots. A grand total of eight players will not be playing in the fall, and that is after Tom Brady took his talent to Tampa. At the NCAA level, UConn became the first major college football team to abandon its 2020 season outright, and the prospect of more cancellations could ding U.S. broadcasters like ABC/ESPN (NYSE:DIS), CBS (NASDAQ:VIAC), NBC (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA). What else is happening... Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) ups supply of remdesivir 50-fold since January. Sanders goes after pandemic wealth gains as Biden moves closer on taxes. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) extends remote work policy to summer 2021. NYSE owner ICE is buying mortgage software company Ellie Mae for $11B. GM (NYSE:GM) looks to recharge Cadillac with Lyriq midsize crossover. Thursday's Key Earnings Dropbox (NASDAQ:DBX) -5.2% AH announcing departure of CFO Ajay Vashee. Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) +33.1% AH delivering more than $70M in free cash flow. T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) +5.6% AH claiming mantle of No. 2 wireless provider. Uber (NYSE:UBER) -2.5% AH as revenues cratered, deliveries soared. Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -0.4%. Hong Kong -1.6%. China -1%. India flat. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.3%. Frankfurt +0.1%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.5%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -1% to $41.53. Gold -0.1% to $2066.80 Bitcoin +0.2% to $11808. Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 0.53% Today's Economic Calendar 8:30 Non-farm payrolls 10:00 Wholesale Trade 1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Don't forget that earnings season is now upon us so get into the habit of checking/double checking when certain companies report before putting on new trades or at least before the close of business on the day in which you initiate a new position. NKE daily - Finally staged a pivot up/close up off of its rising 50-day yesterday... wan't easy to catch but I did pick some up near the $100.60 zone into the very minor pullback following the straight up vertical run off the open... light initial size given not an ideal super low risk entry on an intraday basis... looks good as of now though but follow through/continuation/bullish sustainment of yesterday's move is what's important now... swing risk below $97 for now.. DT daily - Healthy coiling action here... on watch for an eventual breakout... see how it trades around its 10/20s/R1.. CLR daily - Energy stock coiling here as the rising 50-day continues to press up underneath of it... on watch for a breakout... keep an eye on the 10/20s/R1.. WDAY daily - So this is a tech/software stock which could potentially face a bit of a headwind if that space begins to back and fill a bit... but still a bullish pattern on an individual basis so worth keeping an eye on if it shows some sustainment above yesterday's highs.. earnings towards the end of the month.. UNH daily - Not a stock that I normally trade but has breakout follow through potential here.. ADSK daily - Another tech/software name that could face a bit of a headwind if any kind of general rotation begins to gain some momentum but healthy pattern here on an individual basis so worth tracking for a long following some sustainment above yesterday's highs.. earnings towards the end of the month.. LVS daily - Currently bearish pattern that gives the impression that it's setting up for at least some kind of a stop check under the recent lows/possible full blown short-term breakdown but will still defer to how it trades around its 10/20s/S1... was actually short a bit yesterday but didn't swing because I didn't have any buffer.. WYNN daily - Everything said about LVS applies here as well, including me being initially short yesterday as they both traded under their descending 10/20s/S1 zones but didn't swing any due to lack of any buffer... always some possible sudden headline risk in these names so keep that in mind as well.. TWTR daily - Nothing all that special here and could face a headwind if tech begins to back and fill but I'd be interested in some if it can show some sustainment/close strong through the $37.50 zone or so as that could be lift off from the rising 20-day that possibly leads it up into a break above the key $40 zone overhead... AAL daily - Interesting here as a pivot up long following yesterday's bullish close back through its short-term descending trend channel/10/20s... possible higher-low forming on the daily... obvious ongoing headline risk present here but currently on watch for possible follow through higher.. RVLV daily - Has earnings coming up on the 12th so might not do a whole lot until that's out of the way but has a clear coiling pattern here... what intrigues me the most is that it only has a 15mln float and close to 40% of that is sold short... so could squeeze if it starts to perk up and hold as that would start to put some pressure on the shorts and low float/high short interest combos can be a dangerous place to camp out for shorts.. GDDY daily - Trading higher on earnings today but I'm not highlighting it because of that... just wanted to show this bullish falling wedge pattern which is similar to the one I highlighted yesterday in TW... was close to highlighting/trading this one about a week ago but unfortunately passed on it... wanted to show it though because these types of patterns are bullish when they occur within the context of an uptrend.. NEM daily - Another example of one of those but in this particular case I did highlight/trade it a couple of months ago.. they come in different shapes/sizes/durations but they are bullish structures in general.. UPGRADES AND DOWN GRADES UPGRADES Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX) Brokerage Firm: Craig Hallum | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Hold » Buy | Price Tgt: $20 Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Brokerage Firm: Craig Hallum | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Sell » Hold | Price Tgt: -- Brinker (EAT) Brokerage Firm: Evercore ISI | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: In-line » Outperform | Price Tgt: $35 CF Industries (CF) Brokerage Firm: Citigroup | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Neutral » Buy | Price Tgt: -- First Solar (FSLR) Brokerage Firm: BofA Securities | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Neutral » Buy | Price Tgt: -- HollyFrontier (HFC) Brokerage Firm: Goldman | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Sell » Neutral | Price Tgt: -- Intersect ENT (XENT) Brokerage Firm: Guggenheim | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Neutral » Buy | Price Tgt: $30 iRhythm (IRTC) Brokerage Firm: Colliers Securities | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Neutral » Buy | Price Tgt: -- Mercury (MRCY) Brokerage Firm: BofA Securities | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Neutral » Buy | Price Tgt: $95 » $106 Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) Brokerage Firm: Raymond James | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Outperform » Strong Buy | Price Tgt: $28 » $48 OraSure (OSUR) Brokerage Firm: Raymond James | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Mkt Perform » Outperform | Price Tgt: $16 PCSB Financial (PCSB) Brokerage Firm: Compass Point | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Neutral » Buy | Price Tgt: -- SailPoint (SAIL) Brokerage Firm: Canaccord Genuity | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Hold » Buy | Price Tgt: $39 Solar Capital (SLRC) Brokerage Firm: Ladenburg Thalmann | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Neutral » Buy | Price Tgt: -- Transdigm Group (TDG) Brokerage Firm: BofA Securities | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Underperform » Buy | Price Tgt: $550 TrueCar (TRUE) Brokerage Firm: Craig Hallum | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Hold » Buy | Price Tgt: $4 » $10 Universal Display (OLED) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Hold » Buy | Price Tgt: -- Zillow (ZG) Brokerage Firm: Wedbush | Action: Upgrade | Ratings Change: Neutral » Outperform | Price Tgt: -- DOWNGRADES AeroVironment (AVAV) Brokerage Firm: Robert W. Baird | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Outperform » Neutral | Price Tgt: $86 BCE Inc (BCE) Brokerage Firm: Canaccord Genuity | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Buy » Hold | Price Tgt: -- Callaway Golf (ELY) Brokerage Firm: Compass Point | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Buy » Neutral | Price Tgt: $20 CarGurus (CARG) Brokerage Firm: BTIG Research | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Buy » Neutral | Price Tgt: -- Carvana (CVNA) Brokerage Firm: BofA Securities | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Buy » Neutral | Price Tgt: $150 » $230 Illumina (ILMN) Brokerage Firm: Evercore ISI | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: In-line » Underperform | Price Tgt: $310 Illumina (ILMN) Brokerage Firm: Piper Sandler | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Overweight » Neutral | Price Tgt: $356 » $340 Livongo Health (LVGO) Brokerage Firm: The Benchmark Company | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Buy » Hold | Price Tgt: -- Manitowoc (MTW) Brokerage Firm: Stifel | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Buy » Hold | Price Tgt: $11.50 » $11 Peabody Energy (BTU) Brokerage Firm: Vertical Research | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Buy » Hold | Price Tgt: $3 Prestige Consumer (PBH) Brokerage Firm: DA Davidson | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Buy » Neutral | Price Tgt: -- ResMed (RMD) Brokerage Firm: Morgan Stanley | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Overweight » Equal-Weight | Price Tgt: -- Restaurant Brands Int'l (QSR) Brokerage Firm: Evercore ISI | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Outperform » In-line | Price Tgt: -- ServiceMaster (SERV) Brokerage Firm: Morgan Stanley | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Overweight » Equal-Weight | Price Tgt: $44 TechnipFMC (FTI) Brokerage Firm: HSBC Securities | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Buy » Hold | Price Tgt: -- The Trade Desk (TTD) Brokerage Firm: Stephens | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Overweight » Equal-Weight | Price Tgt: $470 TherapeuticsMD (TXMD) Brokerage Firm: Jefferies | Action: Downgrade | Ratings Change: Hold » Underperform | Price Tgt: -- COVERAGE INITIATED CVR Energy (CVI) Brokerage Firm: JP Morgan | Action: Initiated | Ratings Change: Neutral | Price Tgt: -- Neptune Wellness Solutions (NEPT) Brokerage Firm: Alliance Global Partners | Action: Initiated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: -- REITERATED/PRICE TARGET CHANGED Aerie Pharma (AERI) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $32 » $26 Airgain (AIRG) Brokerage Firm: Cowen | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Outperform | Price Tgt: $11 » $16 Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $15 » $22 Atlas Air Worldwide (AAWW) Brokerage Firm: Cowen | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Market Perform | Price Tgt: $44 » $49 Axonics Modulation (AXNX) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $48 » $57 Booking Holdings (BKNG) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $1750 » $2000 Chuy's (CHUY) Brokerage Firm: Telsey Advisory Group | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Market Perform | Price Tgt: $17 » $20 Cloudflare (NET) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $47 » $50 Datadog (DDOG) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $105 » $106 Dicerna Pharmaceuticals (DRNA) Brokerage Firm: H.C. Wainwright | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $32 » $35 Diodes (DIOD) Brokerage Firm: Cowen | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Outperform | Price Tgt: $57 » $61 Dynavax (DVAX) Brokerage Firm: H.C. Wainwright | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $14 » $12 FedEx (FDX) Brokerage Firm: Stephens | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Overweight | Price Tgt: $180 » $215 GW Pharma (GWPH) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $190 » $180 Oceaneering Intl (OII) Brokerage Firm: Cowen | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Market Perform | Price Tgt: $5.50 » $6 Rapid7 (RPD) Brokerage Firm: Monness Crespi & Hardt | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $60 » $70 The Trade Desk (TTD) Brokerage Firm: Pivotal Research Group | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $345 » $550 The Trade Desk (TTD) Brokerage Firm: Susquehanna | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Positive | Price Tgt: $340 » $600 The Trade Desk (TTD) Brokerage Firm: RBC Capital Mkts | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Sector Perform | Price Tgt: $300 » $510 The Trade Desk (TTD) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $475 » $580 Turtle Beach (HEAR) Brokerage Firm: Maxim Group | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $20 » $26 Wix.com (WIX) Brokerage Firm: Needham | Action: Reiterated | Ratings Change: Buy | Price Tgt: $220 » $340